CEM YAŞAR ÖZEY · INSIGHTS
Markets
Falling Yields, Fragile Recovery: The Signals I’m Watching
Lower U.S. Treasury yields did not bring relief to technology stocks in the week ending October 16, 2026. In this episode, I examine that divergence and the evidence needed to distinguish a rebound from a more durable recovery.
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Record Highs Need Confirmation Beyond Equities
Equity strength is only part of the market picture. This episode examines why bonds, the dollar, gold and Bitcoin complicate the reading of stocks near record territory.
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Cross-asset divergence: reading yields, the dollar and risk appetite together
Rising Treasury yields and a firm dollar are putting pressure on some markets while Nasdaq and Bitcoin show greater resilience. In this Market Note, I examine that disagreement through a cross-asset framework rather than treating each price move as an isolated signal.
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When Rising Yields Divide the Market
A stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields did not produce a uniform response. This episode compares pressure in gold and BIST 100 with resilience in Nasdaq 100 and Bitcoin.
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AI’s Second Wave? Why Software Stocks Could Be Next
Artificial intelligence investing has so far been dominated by semiconductors, GPUs and massive data-center spending. But could software become the next major phase of the AI investment cycle? I examine the IGV ETF, leading software companies, valuations and the technical setup behind this possibility.
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Nasdaq Correction? Watch Treasury Yields Before Tech Stocks
The Nasdaq pullback is easier to interpret when viewed through the bond market. Rising Treasury yields can tighten financial conditions and pressure growth-stock valuations even when company fundamentals remain intact.
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A Hawkish Fed, Falling Treasury Yields and the $40 Trillion Debt Question
A hawkish Federal Reserve does not automatically mean higher Treasury yields. The interaction between policy expectations, Treasury market operations and risk assets can produce a very different cross-asset signal.
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Why Are Stocks Falling: Oil, Inflation or Interest Rates?
When oil prices and Treasury yields rise together, the pressure on equities can come through a clear macro transmission chain: energy, inflation expectations, bond yields and valuation.
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Oil relief and equities: assessing the Fed risk that remains
In this episode, I examine a market rebound accompanied by falling oil prices, a stronger dollar and pressure on gold and Bitcoin. The question is how durable that relief may be.
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An Unchanged Fed Rate and a Shift in Expectations
The Fed's decision to hold rates did not bring relief across markets. This episode examines the sell-off and the question of a possible hike rather than the expected direction of a cut.
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Opportunity or Risk? How Rates and Liquidity Are Repricing Markets
Strong employment data can support the economic outlook while simultaneously tightening financial conditions. This episode examines that tension across equities, precious metals and crypto assets.
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Türkiye's Tight Conditions in a Global Risk Rally
Global equity strength and Türkiye's financial conditions are pulling the discussion in different directions. This episode asks how far a supportive global backdrop can reach local assets.
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Equity Calm and the Risks Beneath It
An equity rally can coexist with a more complicated risk picture. This episode examines bond yields, geopolitical scenarios and Türkiye-specific stress beneath apparently calm markets.
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Reading Market Pricing Across Bonds, BIST and Crypto
This episode brings bond-market pressure, BIST 100, precious metals and crypto regulation into one discussion of what global and local asset prices are reflecting.
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